A decline in planning permission in England is threatening UK housebuilding targets, Investec research shows.
In 2024 only 241,000 housing units received planning permission in England, a 3% decrease from the previous year.
This shortfall is particularly acute in the South East, with London facing a substantial housing gap, with only 32,160 dwellings delivered in 2023, less than half the estimated amount required.
Aynsley Lammin, equity analyst, building and construction, at Investec, said: “While we are currently not seeing the levels of construction needed to achieve the government’s targets, there are some positive signs in the market, with both land prices and cost inflation in construction beginning to normalise to pre-pandemic levels.
“As well as costs, the adoption of a partnership model—where local authorities and developers work together—may accelerate building levels.
“These collaborations reduce development risks and capital requirements, allowing for a more flexible approach to delivering new homes.
“By leveraging co-investment from housing associations and institutional investors, we can create a capital-light growth model that helps unstick the housebuilding process.”
The report identified some signs of optimism.
Housebuilding cost inflation slowed to 2% in 2024, compared with 15% in 2022 and 10% in 2023.
Coupled with this, urban brownfield and prime central London land prices spiked in 2021 and 2022 before declining sharply in 2023, suggesting that land may become cheaper for builders.